Modeling and Analysis

Modeling and Analysis small

Modeling Work

My modeling work began with my Master’s Thesis work at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in the early 1970s.  As part of the International Biological Program, we developed models to simulate food web interactions in Lake George, NY and Lake Wingra, WI.  My doctoral dissertation at the University of Michigan focused on use of Kalman Filtering (an early form of Bayesian estimation) to quantify and evaluate the dynamics of error propagation and uncertainty in eutrophication models. While at NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research (1975-1990), I developed a set of ecological models for Lakes Ontario and Michigan focused on simulating the dynamics of their lower food webs in one, two, and three physical dimensions and exploring the bottom-up effects of changes in nutrient loading and the top-down effects of changes in fish populations. More recently, I have been using simpler models to explore and predict the effects of changes in nutrient loads on development of low-oxygen regions in coastal systems such as the northern Gulf of Mexico, the Chesapeake Bay, and Lake Erie.

Related Publications

Scavia, D., J.V. DePinto, I. Bertani. 2016. A Multi-model approach to evaluating target phosphorus loads for Lake Erie. J. Great Lakes Res. in press

Zhang, H., L. Boegman, D. Scavia, D. A. Culver. 2016. Spatial distributions of external and internal phosphorus loads in Lake Erie and their impacts on phytoplankton and water quality. J Great Lakes Res. in press

Bocaniov, S.A, L.F. Keon, Y.R. Rao, D.J. Schwab, D. Scavia. 2016 Simulating the effect of nutrient reduction on hypoxia in a large lake (Lake Erie, USA-Canada) with a three-dimensional lake model. J. Great Lakes. Res

Kalcic, M., Kirchhoff, N. Bosch, R. L. Muenich, M. Murray, , J. Gardner. D. Scavia. 2016. Engaging stakeholders to define feasible and desirable agricultural conservation in western Lake Erie watersheds. Env. Sci. Technol. in press DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b01421

Muenich, R.L., M. Kalcic, D. Scavia. 2016. Evaluating the impact of legacy P and agricultural conservation practices on nutrient loads from the Maumee River Watershed. Env. Sci. Technol. in press DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b01420

Rucinski, D., DePinto, J., Beletsky, D., Scavia, D. 2016 Modeling hypoxia in the Central Basin of Lake Erie under potential phosphorus load reduction scenarios. J. Great. Lakes Res. in press

Bocaniov, S. and D. Scavia 2016 Temporal and spatial dynamics of large lake hypoxia: Integrating statistical and three-dimensional dynamic models to enhance lake management criteria. Water Resources Res. (Supplemental Information) in press

Bertani, I, D.R. Obenour, C. E. Steger, C. A. Stow, A. D. Gronewold, D. Scavia 2016 Probabilistically assessing the role of nutrient loading in harmful algal bloom formation in western Lake Erie. J Great Lakes. Res. in press

Lipor, J., L. Balzano, B. Kerkez, D. Scavia. 2015. Quantile Search: A Distance-Penalized Active Learning Algorithm for Spatial Sampling. Proc. 53rd Annual Allerton Conf. on Communication, Control, and Computing.

Obenour, D.R., A M. Michalak, and D. Scavia 2015 Assessing biophysical controls on Gulf of Mexico hypoxia through probabilistic modeling. Ecol. Applications

Obenour, D.R. A.D. Gronewold, C.A. Stow, and D. Scavia 2014 Using a Bayesian hierarchical model with a gamma error distribution to improve Lake Erie cyanobacteria bloom forecasts. Water Resources Res.

Obenour, D.R., A M. Michalak, and D. Scavia 2015 Assessing biophysical controls on Gulf of Mexico hypoxia through probabilistic modeling. Ecol. Applications

Daloglu, I. J.I. Nassauer, R.L. Riolo, D. Scavia 2014 Developing a farmer typology to link agent-based models with SWAT Agricultural Systems

Bosch, N.S., M.A. Evans, D. Scavia, J.D. Allan 2014 Interacting effects of climate change and agricultural BMPs on nutrient runoff. J. Great Lakes Res.


Scavia, D., J. D. Allan, K. K. Arend, S. Bartell, D. Beletsky, N. S. Bosch, S. B. Brandt, R. D. Briland, I. Daloğlu, J. V. DePinto, D. M. Dolan, M. A. Evans, T. M. Farmer,D. Goto, H. Han, T. O. Höök, R. Knight, S. A. Ludsin, D. Mason, A. M. Michalak, R. P. Richards, J. J. Roberts, D. K. Rucinski, E. Rutherford, D. J. Schwab, T. Sesterhenn, H. Zhang, Y. Zhou. 2014 Assessing and addressing the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: Central Basin Hypoxia. J. Great Lakes Res. 40: 226–246.

Michalak, A.M., E. Anderson, D. Beletsky, S. Boland, N.S. Bosch, T.B. Bridgeman, J.D. Chaffin, K.H. Cho, R. Confesor, I. Daloglu, J. DePinto, M.A. Evans, G.L. Fahnenstiel, L. He, J.C. Ho, L. Jenkins, T. Johengen, K.C. Kuo, E. Laporte, X. Liu, M. McWilliams, M.R. Moore, D.J. Posselt, R.P. Richards, D. Scavia, A.L. Steiner, E. Verhamme8, D.M. Wright, M.A. Zagorski 2013 Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 110 (16) 6448-6452  Supporting Information

Rucinski, D., D. Scavia, J. DePinto, D. Beletsky 2014  Lake Erie’s hypoxia response to nutrient loads and meteorological variability. J. Great Lakes Res.

Daloglu, I. J.I. Nassauer, R.L. Riolo, D. Scavia 2014 An Integrated Social and Ecological Modeling Framework – Impacts of Agricultural Conservation Practices on Water Quality. Ecology and Society

Zhou, Y., D. Scavia, A.M. Michalak 2014 Nutrient loading and meteorological conditions explain interannual variability of hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay.  Limnol. Oceanogr. 59:373-374

Scavia, D., M.A. Evans, D. Obenour 2013A scenario and forecast model for Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area and volume.  Environ. Sci. Technol.

Obenour, D.; D. Scavia, N.R. Rabalais; E.R. Turner; A. Michalak 2013 A retrospective analysis of mid-summer hypoxic area and volume in the northern Gulf of Mexico, 1985-2011 Environ. Sci. Technol. Supporting Information

Bosch N.S., J.D. Allan, J.P. Selegean, D. Scavia 2013 Scenario-testing of agricultural best management practices in Lake Erie watersheds. J. Great Lakes. Res.  Supporting Information

Evans, M.A. and D. Scavia 2013 Exploring estuarine eutrophication sensitivity to nutrient loading. Limnol. Oceanogr.

Zhou, Y., D.R. Obenour, D. Scavia, T.H. Johengen, A.M. Michalak (2013) Spatial and Temporal Trends in Lake Erie Hypoxia, 1987-2007. Environ. Sci. Technol.47 (2), pp 899-905  Supporting Information; Correction

Richards, R. P., I. Alameddine, J.D. Allan , D.B. Baker, N. S. Bosch, R. Confesor, J.V. DePinto, D.M. Dolan, J.M. Reutter, D. Scavia 2012  Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models. J. Am. Water Res. Assoc.

Daloglu, I. K.H. Cho, D. Scavia 2012 Evaluating causes of trends in long-term dissolved reactive phosphorus loads to Lake Erie. Environ. Sci. Technol. 46:10660-10666

Obenour, D.R., A.M. Michalak,Y. Zhou, and D. Scavia. 2012. Quantifying the Impacts of Stratification and Nutrient Loading on Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Environ. Sci. Technol.

Liu, Y., G.B. Arhonditsis, C. Stow, D. Scavia. 2011 Comparing Chesapeake Bay Hypoxic-Volume and Dissolved-Oxygen Profile Predictions with A Bayesian Streeter-Phelps Model. J. America Water Res. Assoc.

Evans, M.A. and D. Scavia 2010. Forecasting hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico: Model accuracy, precision, and sensitivity to ecosystem change. Environ. Res. Letters.  doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/015001 Associated News Summary

Bell, A., M. Lemos, and D. Scavia. 2010 . Cattle, Clean Water, and Climate Change: Policy Choices for the Brazilian Agricultural Frontier. Environ. Sci. Technol. 44(22): 8377-8384

Rucinski, D.K., D. Beletsky, J. V. DePinto, D. J. Schwab, D. Scavia. 2010 A Simple 1-Dimensional Climate Based Dissolved Oxygen Model for Central Basin of Lake ErieJ. Great Lakes Res. 36:465-476

Liu, Y, M.A. Evans, D. Scavia. 2010 Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia: Exploring Increasing Sensitivity to Nitrogen Loads. Environ. Sci. Technol.

Liu, Y. and D. Scavia.  2010. Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Regime Shift: Insights from Two Simple Mechanistic Models. Estuaries and Coasts 33:629-639DOI 10.1007/s12237-009-9251-z

Fishman, D., S.A. Adlerstein,D. Scavia. 2010  Phytoplankton Community Composition of Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, during the Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) Invasion: A Multivariate Analysis J. Great Lakes Res. 36:1-19

Fishman, D., D. Scavia, S.A. Adlerstein.2009. Causes of Phytoplankton Changes in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron during the Zebra Mussel Invasion. J. Great Lakes Res. 35: 482-495

Scavia, D. and Y. Liu. 2009. Exploring Estuarine Nutrient SusceptibilityEnviron. Sci. Technol. April 10, 2009. Supporting Information

Han. H., J. D. Allan, D. Scavia. 2009. Influence of Climate and Human Activities on the Relationship between Watershed Nitrogen Input and River Export. Environ. Sci. Technol. 43:1916-1922.  Supporting Information

Stow, C.A. and D. Scavia. 2009. Modeling Hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay: Ensemble Estimation Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. J. Marine Systems 76:244-250.

Scavia, D. and K.A. Donnelly. 2007. Reassesing Hypoxia Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico. Env. Sci. Technol. 41, 8111–8117.  Published Supporting Information

Justic, D., V.J. Bierman, Jr., D. Scavia. and R. Hetland. Forecasting Gulf’s Hypoxia: The Next 50 Years? 2007. Estuaries and Coasts, 30(5): 791-801.

Swaney, D.P., D. Scavia, R.W. Howarth, R.M. Marino. 2008 Estuarine Classification and Response to Nitrogen Loading: Insights from Simple Ecological Models. Estuarine and Continental Shelf Science Special Issue.

Donner, S.D and D. Scavia. 2007. How climate controls the flux of nitrogen by the Mississippi River and the development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Limnol. Oceanogr. 52(2): 856-861.

Bierman, V.J.  Jr., S.C. Hinz; D. Justic, D.Scavia, J.A. Veil, K. Satterlee, M. Parker. 2007.  Predicted Impacts from Offshore Produced Water Discharges on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. SPE Facilities, Construction, and Operations.  Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Scavia, D., E.A. Kelly, and J. D. Hagy III. 2006. A simple model for forecasting the effects of nitrogen loads on Chesapeake Bay hypoxia. Estuaries and Coasts 29(4) 674-684.

Scavia, D., D. Justic, and V.J. Bierman, Jr.  2004. Reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico: Advice from three models. Estuaries 27(3):419-425.

Scavia, D. N.N. Rabalais, R.E. Turner, D. Justic, and W. Wiseman Jr.  2003. Predicting the response of Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia to variations in Mississippi River Nitrogen Load. Limnol. Oceanogr. 48(3): 951-956.

Scavia, D., G.A. Lang, and J.F. Kitchell. 1988. Dynamics of Lake Michigan plankton: A model evaluation of nutrient loading, competition, predation. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 45: 165 – 177

Fahnenstiel, G.L., D. Scavia, G.A. Lang, J. Saylor, G. Miller, and D.J. Schwab. 1988. Impact of internal waves on conventional primary production estimates. J. Plankton Res. 10: 77-87.

Henderson-Sellers, B., M.J. McCormick, and D. Scavia.  1983. A Comparison of the Formulation for Eddy Diffusion in two One-dimensional Stratification Models. Appl. Math.

McCormick, M.J. and D. Scavia.  1981.  Calculation of Vertical Profiles of Lake Averaged Temperature and Diffusivity in Lakes Ontario and Washington. Water Resources Research 17:305-310.

Scavia, D., W. F. Powers, R. P. Canale, and J. L. Moody. 1981. Comparisons of First-Order Error Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation in Time-dependent Lake Eutrophication Models. Water Resources Research 17:1051-1059.

Scavia, D., R.P. Canale, W. F. Powers, and J. L. Moody 1981. Variance Estimates for a Dynamic Eutrophication Model of Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. Water Resources Research  17:1115-1124.

Scavia, D.  1980. An Ecological Model of Lake Ontario. Ecological Modelling 8:49-78.

Scavia, D. and J. R. Bennett.  1980. The Spring Transition Period of Lake Ontario – A Numerical Study of the Causes of the Large Biological and Chemical Gradients. Can. J. Fish. Aquat.Sci. 37:823-833.

Scavia, D. and A. Robertson.  (Eds.)  1979.  Perspectives on Lake Ecosystem Modeling.  Ann Arbor Science Publ., Ann Arbor, 330p.

Vanderploeg, H.A. and D. Scavia.  1979.  Calculation and Use of Selective Feeding Coefficients:  Zooplankton Grazing. Ecological Modelling 7:135-150.

Vanderploeg, H.A. and D. Scavia.  1979.  Two Electivity  Indecies for Feeding With Special Reference To Zooplankton Grazing. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Canada  36:362-365.

Scavia, D.  1979.  Examination of Phosphorus Cycling and Control of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Lake Ontario With An Ecological Model. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Canada  36:1336-1346.

Robertson, A. and D. Scavia 1978.  Ecosystem and Water Quality Modeling During IFYGL. Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol 20:311-316.

Scavia, D. and S. C. Chapra. 1977.  Comparison of An Ecological Model of Lake Ontario and Phosphorus Loading Models. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Canada 34:286-290.

Scavia, D. and R. V. Thomann.  1977.  Some Comments on a Water Quality Model for Deep Reservoirs. J. Water Pollution Control Federation 49:507.

Kohberger, R.C., D. Scavia, and J. W. Wilkinson.  1978.  A Method for Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Differential Equation Models. Water Resources Research 14:25-29.

Scavia, D. and R.A. Park.  1976.  Documentation of Selected Constructs and Parameter Values in the Aquatic Model CLEANER. Ecological Modelling 2:33-58.

Scavia, D. and B. J. Eadie. 1976.  Use of Measurable Coefficients in process Formulations-Zooplankton Grazing.  Ecological Modeling 2:315-319.

Park, R.A., R.V. O’Neill, J.A. Bloomfield, H.H. Shugart, R.S. Booth, R.A. Goldstine, J.B. Mankin, J.F. Koonce, D. Scavia, M.S.Adams, L.S. Cleseri, E.M. Colon, E.H. Dettmann, J. Hoopes, D.D. Huff, S. Katz, J.F. Kitchell, R.C. Kohberger, E.J. Larow, D.C. McNaught, J. Petersen, J. Titus, P.R. Weiler, J.W. Wilkinson, C.S. Zahorcak. 1974.  A Generalized Model for Simulating Lake Ecosystems. Simulation 23:51-56.

Evans, M.A. and D. Scavia 2010. Forecasting hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico: Model accuracy, precision, and sensitivity to ecosystem change. Environ. Res. Letters.  doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/015001Bell, A., M. Lemos, and D. Scavia. 2010 . Cattle, Clean Water, and Climate Change: Policy Choices for the Brazilian Agricultural Frontier. Environ. Sci. Technol.Rucinski, D.K., D. Beletsky, J. V. DePinto, D. J. Schwab, D. Scavia. 2010 A Simple 1-Dimensional Climate Based Dissolved Oxygen Model for Central Basin of Lake Erie.  J. Great Lakes Res. 36:465-476

Arend, K.K, D. Beletsky, J.V. DePinto, S.A. Ludsin, J. J. Roberts, D. K. Rucinski, D. Scavia, D. J.Schwab, T. O. Höök(2010) Hypolimnetic hypoxia in the central basin of Lake Erie: understanding seasonal and interannual effects on habitat quality of important fish species. Freshwater Biology doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02504.x