In 2015, Ohio and Michigan and the province of Ontario formally agreed to reach a 40% reduction of total and soluble phosphorus export to the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), as recommended by the Lake Erie Phosphorus Task Force and proposed by USEPA Annex 4, by 2025. While Best Management Plans (BMPs) are being investigated and applied to meet this goal, it is clear that greater rates of adoption are needed, as well as additional resources, to implement these practices. What is unknown is 1. what annual rates of adoption of BMPs are needed to reach reduction goals and how long it will take to reach these targets, and 2. how changes in climate will impact the ability of BMPs to reach these goals. This project is designed to:

• determine annual adoption rates and Best Management Plans (BMPs) required to reach targeted reductions of phosphorus export from the Maumee River using multiple watershed models.
• determine how climate change will impact annual adoption rates and BMPs required to reach targeted reductions of phosphorus export from the Maumee River using multiple watershed models.
• determine how projected changes in Maumee discharge will impact water quality in Maumee Bay and WLEB using existing lake models.
• work with an advisory group throughout the project to evaluate and determine the management and climate change scenarios to be analyzed, and pursue outreach activities to disseminate results.