Lake Erie
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- Lake Erie HAB Forecast
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- Published Forecast Model Descriptions:
- Scavia, D., Y-C Wang, D. R. Obenour, A. Apostel, S. J. Basile, M. M. Kalcic, C. J. Kirchhoff, L. Miralha, R. L. Muenich, A.L. Steiner. 2021 Quantifying uncertainty cascading from climate, watershed, and lake models in harmful algal bloom predictions. Sci. Total Environ. https://doi-org.proxy.lib.umich.edu/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143487.
- Manning, N.F., Y.C. Wang, C. M. Long, I. Bertani, M. J. Sayers, K. R. Bosse, R. A. Shuchman, D. Scavia. 2019 Extending the Forecast Model: Predicting Harmful Algal Blooms at Multiple Spatial Scales. J. Great Lakes Res. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2019.03.004
- Bertani, I, D.R. Obenour, C. E. Steger, C. A. Stow, A. D. Gronewold, D. Scavia 2016 Probabilistically assessing the role of nutrient loading in harmful algal bloom formation in western Lake Erie.
- Using a Bayesian hierarchical model with a gamma error distribution to improve Lake Erie cyanobacteria bloom forecasts
- Reports related to the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement
- Reports related to approaches to meet the load reduction targets
Gulf of Mexico
- Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Forecast
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- Published Forecast Model Descriptions:
- Scavia, D., D. Justic, D. Obenour, K. Craig, L. Wang. 2019. Hypoxic volume is more responsive than hypoxic area to nutrient load reductions in the northern Gulf of Mexico – and it matters to fish and fisheries. Env. Res. Lett.
- Scavia, D., I. Bertani, D.R. Obenour, R.E. Turner, D.R. Forrest, A. Katin. 2017 Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 114:8823-8828
- The most recent version of the model.
- The original model
- Model comparing N vs P control
- 1995-2015 Farm Bill Conservation Funding
Chesapeake Bay
- Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia
- Summer review and comparison to the forecast
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- Published Forecast Model Description:
- Scavia, D., I. Bertani, A. J. Bever, J. D. Blomquist, M.A.M. Friedrichs, L. C. Linker, B. D. Michael, R. R. Murphy, G. W. Shenk, J. M. Testa. Advancing Estuarine Ecological Forecasts: Seasonal Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. Ecol. Appl. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2384
- The original Chesapeake Bay model
- A discussion of model accuracy, precision, and sensitivity to ecosystem change.
- Lessons from a decade of Chesapeake Bay forecasts