The proposed work is organized around the overarching question: How does climate influence the biophysical dynamics of freshwater ecosystems and ecosystem services, and how can scientist and stakeholder co-production of information enhance coastal decision-making and sustainability? We will advance the fundamental knowledge of (1) the role of precipitation change and how uncertainty in climate model precipitation affects simulations of phosphorous loading, (2) the role of cold season processes on climate and phosphorous loading, (3) primary climate versus anthropogenic drivers that alter phosphorous loading, (4) the drivers over time and space controlling the size and location of future HABs, (5) how humans and the valuation of ecosystem services respond to HABs, and (6) information usability, by better understanding drivers of use and the kinds of decisions that may emerge from the co-production process.

We will focus on four stakeholder sectors: water treatment, beach management, recreational fishing and agricultural management and policy. Workshops will develop decision-relevant information for and feedback from those responsible for preventing future HABs (considering watershed loading simulations) and those required to adapt to current HABs (considering HAB forecasts).