For almost three decades, the relative size of the hypoxic region on the Louisiana-Texas continental shelf has drawn scientific and policy attention. During that time, both simple and complex models have been used to explore hypoxia dynamics and to provide management guidance relating the size of the hypoxic zone to key drivers.  We developed and applied several versions of a novel stream model to capture the inter-annual variability in hypoxic extent as a function of nutrient loads. The model has been used throughout the development of action plans to reduce hypoxia.

Our work on developing and applying models of Gulf of Mexico hypoxia is documents in the published papers below, and a special website for our annual forecasts can be found here.

• Obenour, D.R., A M. Michalak, and D. Scavia 2015Assessing biophysical controls on Gulf of Mexico hypoxia through probabilistic modeling. Ecol. Applications http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-2257.1
• Scavia, D., M.A. Evans, D. Obenour 2013A scenario and forecast model for Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area and volume.  Environ. Sci. Technol.http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es4025035
• Obenour, D.; D. Scavia, N.R. Rabalais; E.R. Turner; A. Michalak 2013A retrospective analysis of mid-summer hypoxic area and volume in the northern Gulf of Mexico, 1985-2011 Sci. Technol. Supporting Information
• Obenour, D.R., A.M. Michalak,Y. Zhou, and D. Scavia. 2012.Quantifying the Impacts of Stratification and Nutrient Loading on Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  Sci. Technol. dxdoi.org/10.102/es204481a
• Evans, M.A. and D. Scavia 2010.Forecasting hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico: Model accuracy, precision, and sensitivity to ecosystem change.  Res. Letters.  doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/015001
• Liu, Y, M.A. Evans, D. Scavia. 2010Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia: Exploring Increasing Sensitivity to Nitrogen Load Environ. Sci. Technol.
• Boesch, D., L.B. Crowder, R.J. Diaz, R.W. Howarth, L.E. Mee, S.W. Nixon, N.N. Rabalais, R. Rosenberg, J.G. Sanders, D. Scavia, R.E. Turner. 2009.Nutrient enrichment drives Gulf of Mexico hypoxia, Eos Trans. AGU. 99:117-128. Supporting information
• Justic, D., V.J. Bierman, Jr., D. Scavia. and R. Hetland.Forecasting Gulf’s Hypoxia: The Next 50 Years?  Estuaries and Coasts, 30(5): 791-801.
• Scavia, D. and K.A. Donnelly. 2007.Reassesing Hypoxia Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico.  Sci. Technol. 41, 8111–8117.  Published Supporting Information
• Scavia, D., D. Justic, and V.J. Bierman, Jr.  2004.Reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico: Advice from three models. Estuaries 27(3):419-425.
• Scavia, D. N.N. Rabalais, R.E. Turner, D. Justic, and W. Wiseman Jr.  2003.Predicting the response of Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia to variations in Mississippi River Nitrogen Load.  Oceanogr. 48(3): 951-956.
• Rabalais, N.N., R.E. Turner, and D. Scavia. 2002.Beyond Science into Policy: Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia and the Mississippi River. BioScience 52:129-142.