IN REVIEW

Zhou, Y., H. Gong, D. Scavia, C. Li, B. Lu, X. Gan, X. Wang, Z. Zhu, L. Zhou, F. Chai, J. Huang, J. Zhang. Expansion of global oxygen minimum volumes under climate change.

Zhou, Ya, L. Huang, H. Fang, G. He, L. Huang, J. Liu, D. Scavia. Identifying the effects of climate change on discharge and sediment transport in a typical alpine basin.

Articles published in The Conversation:

• To reduce harmful algal blooms and dead zones, the US needs a national strategy for regulating farm pollution
• How your diet contributes to nutrient pollution and dead zones in lakes and bays
• Dead zones are a global water pollution challenge – but with sustained effort they can come back to life
• Nutrient pollution: Voluntary steps are failing to shrink algae blooms and dead zones
• A Bad Year for Lake Erie: Forecasting dead zones and toxic algae in US waterways
• Industrial corn farming is ruining our health and polluting our watersheds

PUBLISHED AND IN PRESS

Scavia, D., Stuart A. Ludsin, Mingyu Han, Laura T. Johnson, Anna M. Michalak, Daniel R. Obenour, Yu-Chen Wang, Gang Zhao, Yuntao Zhou Water quality-fisheries tradeoffs in a changing climate underscore the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management. Supporting Information Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.  10.1073/pnas.2322595121

Apostel, A., M. Kalcic, R. L. Muenich, K. King, J. Martin, and D. Scavia. A retrospective analysis of climate and land management drivers of nutrient export from the western Lake Erie watershed: 1980-2019 , Aquat. Ecosys. Health Manage.

Bocaniov. S.A., D. Scavia, P. Van Cappellen.  A mass-balance approach for predicting lake phosphorus concentrations as a function of external phosphorus loading: Application to the Lake St. Clair – Lake Erie System (Canada – USA). Aqua. Eco. Health & Management.

Scavia, D. and T.J. Calappi. Detroit River load estimation – The need for a new monitoring approach. J. Great Lakes Res.

Bocaniov, S.A., D. Scavia, P. Van Cappellen. Long-term phosphorus mass balance suggests a major role of in-lake mobilization processes in nutrient enrichment of Lake Erie (Canada-USA). Ecological Informatics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.102131

Scavia, D. 2023. Updated Phosphorus loads from Lake Huron and the Detroit River: Implications. J. Great Lakes Res. 49: 422-428 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2023.01.008

Scavia, D., Y-C. Wang, D.R. Obenour. 2023 Advancing Freshwater Ecological Forecasts: Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie. Sci. Total Environ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158959

Meng, J-N, H. Fang, L. Huang, G. He, X. Liu, C. Xu, X. Wu, D. Scavia. 2022.  Multidimensional ecosystem assessment of Poyang Lake under anthropogenic influences. Ecological Modeling 473: 110134

Scavia, D., T. J. Calappi, C. M. Godwin, B. Hill, M. Veliz, Y-C Wang. 2022. Wind-driven sediment resuspension in the world’s fourth-largest lake contributes a substantial phosphorus load to the eleventh-largest lake. ES&T https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c02820  Supporting Information

Kujawa, H., M. Kalcic, J. Martin, A. Apostel, J. Kast, A. Murumkar, G. Evenson, N. Aloysius, R. Becker, C. Boles, R. Confesor, A. Dagnew, T. Guo, R.L. Muenich, T. Redder, Y-C Wang, D. Scavia. 2022. Using a multi-institutional ensemble of watershed models to assess agricultural conservation effectiveness and uncertainty in a future climate. JAWRA

Scavia, D., I. Bertani, A. J. Bever, J. D. Blomquist, M.A.M. Friedrichs, L. C. Linker, B. D. Michael, R. R. Murphy, G. W. Shenk, J. M. Testa. 2021. Advancing Estuarine Ecological Forecasts: Seasonal Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. Ecol. Appl. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2384

Meng, J-N, H. Fang, D. Scavia. 2021 Application of ecosystem stability and regime shift theories in ecosystem assessment. Ecol. Indicators 125:107529

Martin, J., M. Kalcic, N. Aloysius, A. Apostel, M. Brooker, G. Evenson, J. Kast, H. Kujawa,  A. Murumkar, R. Becker, C. Boles, R. Confesor, A. Dagnew, T. Guo, C. Long, R. Muenich, D. Scavia, T. Redder, D. Robertson, Y-C Wang. 2021.  Evaluating Management Options to Reduce Lake Erie Algal Blooms Using an Ensemble of Watershed Models. J. Environ. Management.

Scavia, D., Y-C Wang, D. R. Obenour, A. Apostel, S. J. Basile, M. M. Kalcic, C. J. Kirchhoff, L. Miralha, R. L. Muenich, A.L. Steiner. 2021 Quantifying uncertainty cascading from climate, watershed, and lake models in harmful algal bloom predictions. Sci. Total Environ. https://doi-org.proxy.lib.umich.edu/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143487.

Apostel, A., M. Kalcic, R. Muenich, G. Evenson, A. Dagnew, J. Kast, R. Muenich, K. King, J. Martin, D. Scavia.  2021 Simulating internal watershed processes using multiple SWAT models. Sci. Total Environ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143920

Miralha, L., R. Muenich, D. Scavia, A. Steiner, M. Kalcic. 2021 Bias correction of climate model outputs influences watershed model nutrient load predictions. Sci. Total. Environ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143039

Evenson, G.E., M. Kalcic, Y-C Wang, D. Robertson, D. Scavia, J. Martin, A. Apostel, N. Aloysius, J. Kast, H. Kujawa, C. Boles, T. Redder, R. Confesor, T. Guo, R. L. Muenich, A. Dagnew, A. Murumkar, M. Brooker. 2020 Uncertainty in critical source area predictions from watershed-scale hydrologic models. J. Environ. Management.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111506

Del Giudice, D., S. Fang, D. Scavia, T. W. Davis, M. A. Evans, D. R. Obenour 2021  Elucidating controls on cyanobacteria bloom timing and intensity via Bayesian mechanistic modeling. Sci.Total Environ. 755:142487

Scavia, D., E. J. Anderson, A. Dove, B. Hill, C. M. Long, Y-C Wang. 2020 Lake Huron’s Phosphorus Contributions to the St. Clair-Detroit River Great Lakes Connecting Channel. Environ Sci. Tech. 54:5550-5559 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c00383

Kujawa, H., M. Kalcic, J. Martin, N. Aloysius, A. Apostel, J. Kast, A. Murumkar, G. Evenson, R. Becker, C. Boles, R. Confesor, A. Dagnew, T. Guo, R. L. Muenich, T. Redder, D. Scavia, Y-C Wang. 2020 The hydrologic model as a source of nutrient loading uncertainty in a future climate.  Science of the Total Environment  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138004

Bocaniov, S.A., P. Van Cappellen, D. Scavia.  On the role of a large shallow lake (Lake St. Clair, USA-Canada) in modulating phosphorus loads to Lake Erie. Water Resources Res. 55: 10548-10564.   10.1029/2019WR025019

Xu, X., Y-C Wang, M. Kalcic, R. L. Muenich, Y.C.E. Yang, D. Scavia. 2019. Evaluating the impact of climate change on fluvial flood risk in a mixed-use watershed. Environmental Modeling and Software. 122:1-11

Scavia, D. Time to pick up our heads and look inland. Limnol. Oceanogr. Bulletin November 2019

Scavia, D., S. Bocaniov, A. Dagnew, Y. Hu, B. Kerkez, C. Long, R. Muenich, J. Read, L. Vaccaro, Y-C. Wang. Detroit River phosphorus loads: Anatomy of a binational watershed, J Great Lakes Res. 45: 1150-1161 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2019.09.008

Hu, Y., C.M. Long. Y-C Wang, B.Kerkez, D.Scavia. Urban Total Phosphorus Loads to the St. Clair-Detroit River System. J. Great Lakes Res. 45: 1142-1149  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2019.09.009

Fang, S., D.D. Giudice, D. Scavia_, C.E. Binding, T. B. Bridgeman, J. D. Chaffin, M. A. Evans, J. Guinness, T. H. Johengen, D. R. Obenour. A Space-time geostatistical model for probabilistic estimation of harmful algal bloom biomass and areal extent.  Science of the Total Environment 695: 133776 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133776

Kalcic, M.M., R. L. Muenich, S. Basile, A. L. Steiner, C. Kirchhoff, D. Scavia. 2019 Climate change and nutrient loading: warming can counteract a wetter future. Environ. Sci. Technol. 53, 13, 7543-7550

Dagnew, A. D. Scavia, Y-C Wang, R. Muenich, C. Long, M. Kalcic. 2019 Modeling Nutrient and Sediment Delivery from a Complex International Watershed with Highly Variable Land Cover. JAWRA https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12779

Scavia, D., S. Bocaniov, A. Dagnew, Y. Hu, B. Kerkez, C. Long, R. Muenich, J. Read, L. Vaccaro and Y. Wang. 2019. Watershed Assessment of Detroit River Phosphorus Loads to Lake Erie. Final project report produced by the University of Michigan Water Center. 

Dagnew, A., D. Scavia, Y-C Wang, R.Muenich, M.Kalcic. 2019. Modeling phosphorus reduction strategies from the international St. Clair-Detroit River system watershed.  J. Great Lakes Res. 45:742-751 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2019.04.005

Manning, N.F., Y.C. Wang, C. M. Long, I. Bertani, M. J. Sayers, K. R. Bosse, R. A. Shuchman, D. Scavia. 2019 Extending the Forecast Model: Predicting Harmful Algal Blooms at Multiple Spatial Scales. J. Great Lakes Res. 45:587–595 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2019.03.004

Scavia, D. 2019. Sustainability in a politically polarized society.  Michigan J. Sustainability 6 (1)

Scavia, D., D. Justic, D. Obenour, K. Craig, L. Wang. 2019. Hypoxic volume is more responsive than hypoxic area to nutrient load reductions in the northern Gulf of Mexico – and it matters to fish and fisheries.  Env. Res. Lett.

Scavia, D., S.A. Bocaniov, A. Dagnew, C. Long, Y-C Wang. 2019. St. Clair-Detroit River system: Phosphorus mass balance and implications for Lake Erie load reduction, monitoring, and climate change. J. Great Lakes Res.  45:40-49

Hu, Y., D. Scavia, B.Kerkez. 2018. Are all data useful? Inferring causality to predict flows across sewer and drainage systems using Directed Information and Boosted Regression Trees. Water Res. 145: 697-706

Bocaniov, S. A. and D. Scavia. 2018. Nutrient loss rates in relation to transport time scales in a large shallow lake (Lake St. Clair, USA – Canada): insights from a three-dimensional lake model. Water Resources. Res. 54: 3825-3840

Del Giudice, D., R.L. Muenich, M. Kalcic, N.S. B., D. Scavia, A. M. Michalak. 2018. On the practical usefulness of least squares for assessing uncertainty in hydrologic and water quality predictions. Env. Modeling and Software 105: 286–295

Long, C., R. L. Muenich, M. Kalcic, D. Scavia. 2018. Use of manure nutrients from Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations. J. Great Lakes. Res. 44: 245–252

Muenich, R.L., M.M. Kalcic, J. Winsten, K. Fisher, M. Day, G. O’Neil, Y.-C. Wang, D. Scavia. 2017. Pay-For-Performance Conservation Using SWAT Highlights Need for Field-Level Agricultural Conservation. Trans. ASABE. 60:1925-1937

Scavia, D., I. Bertani, D.R. Obenour, R.E. Turner, D.R. Forrest, A. Katin. 2017 Ensemble modeling informs hypoxia management in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 114:8823-8828

Lipor, J.,  B. Wong, D. Scavia, B. Kerkez, L. Balzano, 2017. Distance-penalized active learning algorithm using quantile search. IEEE Trans. Signal Processing. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSP.2017.2731323

Testa, J.M., J.B. Clark, W.C. Dennison, E.C. Donovan, A.W. Fisher, W. Ni, M. Parker, D. Scavia, S.E. Spitzer, A.M. Waldrop, V.M.D. Vargas, G. Ziegler.  2017 Ecological forecasting and the science of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay BioScience. 67: 614-626

Scavia, D., M. Kalcic, R. Logsdon Muenich, N. Aloysius,  I. Bertani, C. Boles, R. Confesor, J. DePinto, M. Gildow, J. Martin, J. Read, T. Redder, D. Robertson, S. Sowa, Y. Wang, H Yen.  2017 Multiple models guide strategies for agricultural nutrient reductions. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 15: 126–132

Bertani, I., C. E. Steger, D. R. Obenour, G. L. Fahnenstiel, T. B. Bridgeman, T. H. Johengen, M. J. Sayers, R. A. Shuchman, D. Scavia. 2016. Tracking cyanobacteria blooms: do different monitoring approaches tell the same story? Science of the Total Environment 575: 294-308

Scavia, D., J.V. DePinto, I. Bertani. 2016. A Multi-model approach to evaluating target phosphorus loads for Lake Erie. J. Great Lakes Res. 42: 1139-1150

Zhang, H., L. Boegman, D. Scavia, D. A. Culver. 2016. Spatial distributions of external and internal phosphorus loads in Lake Erie and their impacts on phytoplankton and water quality. J Great Lakes Res. 42: 1212-1227

Bocaniov, S.A, L.F. Keon, Y.R. Rao, D.J. Schwab, D. Scavia. 2016 Simulating the effect of nutrient reduction on hypoxia in a large lake (Lake Erie, USA-Canada) with a three-dimensional lake model. J. Great Lakes. Res 42: 1228-1240

Kalcic, M., C. Kirchhoff, N. Bosch, R. L. Muenich, M. Murray, J. Gardner. D. Scavia. 2016. Engaging stakeholders to define feasible and desirable agricultural conservation in western Lake Erie watersheds. Env. Sci. Technol. 50:8135-5145

Muenich, R.L., M. Kalcic, D. Scavia. 2016. Evaluating the impact of legacy P and agricultural conservation practices on nutrient loads from the Maumee River Watershed. Env. Sci. Technol. 50: 8146-8154

Rucinski, D., DePinto, J., Beletsky, D., Scavia, D. 2016 Modeling hypoxia in the Central Basin of Lake Erie under potential phosphorus load reduction scenarios. J. Great. Lakes Res. 42: 1206-1211

Bocaniov, S. and D. Scavia 2016 Temporal and spatial dynamics of large lake hypoxia: Integrating statistical and three-dimensional dynamic models to enhance lake management criteria. Water Resources Res. (Supplemental Information) 52: 4247-4263

Bertani, I, D.R. Obenour, C. E. Steger, C. A. Stow, A. D. Gronewold, D. Scavia 2016. Probabilistically assessing the role of nutrient loading in harmful algal bloom formation in western Lake Erie. J Great Lakes. Res. 42: 1184:1192

Scavia, D., M. Kalcic, R. Logsdon Muenich, J. Read, N. Aloysius, C. Boles, R. Confessor, J. DePinto, M. Gildow, J. Martin, T. Redder, S. Sowa, Y. Wang, H. Yen.  Informing Lake Erie Agriculture Nutrient Management via Scenario Evaluation April, 2016, University of Michigan Water Center, Ann Arbor

Lipor, J., L. Balzano, B. Kerkez, D. Scavia. 2015. Quantile Search: A Distance-Penalized Active Learning Algorithm for Spatial Sampling. Proc. 53rd Annual Allerton Conf. on Communication, Control, and Computing.

Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement Annex 4 Objectives and Targets Task Team Final Report to the Nutrients Annex Subcommittee. May 11, 2015

Obenour, D.R., A M. Michalak, and D. Scavia 2015 Assessing biophysical controls on Gulf of Mexico hypoxia through probabilistic modeling. Ecol. Applications 25: 492-505

Bartolai, AM, L. He, L. Motsch, R, Paehlke, D. Scavia 2015 Climate Change as a driver of change in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin. J. Great Lakes Res. 41 (Supplement 1): 45-58

Comer, B., D.A., Fera, A.S. Splawinski, K.L Laurent, K.B. Friedman, G. Krantzberg, D. Scavia, I.F. Creed 2015 Thriving and prosperous: How we rallied to confront collective challenges in the Great Lakes basin. J. Great Lakes Res. 41 (Supplement 1): 161-170

Friedman, K. B., K. Laurent, G. Krantzberg, D. Scavia, I. F. Creed 2015 The Great Lakes Futures Project:  Principles and Policy Recommendations for Making the Lakes Great. J. Great Lakes Res. 41 (Supplement 1): 171-179

Kalafatis, S.E., M. Campbell, F. Fathers, K. L. Laurent, K. B. Friedman, G. Krantzberg, D. Scavia, I. F. Creed 2015. Out of control: How we failed to adapt and suffered the consequences. J. Great Lakes Res. 41 (Supplement 1): 20-29

Krantzberg, G., I.F. Creed, K.B. Friedman, K.L., Laurent, J.A. Jackson, J. Brammeier, D. Scavia 2015 Community Engagement Is Critical To Achieve A “Thriving And Prosperous” Future For The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin. J. Great Lakes Res. 41 (Supplement 1): 188-191

Laurent, K., L. B. Friedman, G. Krantzberg, D. Scavia, I.F. Creed 2015  Scenario analysis: a tool for strategic planning to achieve a thriving Great Lakes-S. Lawrence river basin. J. Great Lakes Res. 41 (Supplement 1): 12-19

Laurent, K..L. D. Scavia, K. B. Friedman, G K. Krantzberg, I. F. Creed 2015. Critical forces defining alternative futures for the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River basin. J. Great Lakes Res. 41 (Supplement 1): 131-138

Orr, C.J., K.C. Williams, K. L Laurent, K. B. Friedman, G. Krantzberg, D. Scavia, I. Creed 2015 Trying Hard to Adapt to a Chaotic World: How Complex Challenges Overwhelmed Best Intentions in the Great Lakes region. J. Great Lakes Res. 41 (Supplement 1):139-149

Steenberg, J., Timm, M., Laurent, K.L., Friedman, K.B., Krantzberg, G., Scavia, D., Creed, I.F., 2015 Living on the Edge: How we converted challenges into profitable opportunities. J. Great Lakes Res. 41 (Supplement 1): 150-160

Steenberg, J., Timm, M., Laurent, K.L., Friedman, K.B., Krantzberg, G., Scavia, D., Creed, I.F., 2015 Living on the Edge: How we converted challenges into profitable opportunities. J. Great Lakes Res.

Obenour, D.R. A.D. Gronewold, C.A. Stow, and D. Scavia 2014 Using a Bayesian hierarchical model with a gamma error distribution to improve Lake Erie cyanobacteria bloom forecasts. Water Resources Res.

Daloglu, I. J.I. Nassauer, R.L. Riolo, D. Scavia 2014 Developing a farmer typology to link agent-based models with SWAT Agricultural Systems 129:93-102

Bosch, N.S., M.A. Evans, D. Scavia, J.D. Allan 2014 Interacting effects of climate change and agricultural BMPs on nutrient runoff. J. Great Lakes Res. 40: 581-589

Pryor, S.C. D. Scavia, C, Downer, M. Gaden, L. Iverson, R. Nordstrom, J. Patz, G.P. Robertson 2014.  Chapter 18: Midwest.  Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. J.M. Melillo, T.C. Richmond, G.W. Yohe, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program 18:1-18

Scavia, D., J. D. Allan, K. K. Arend, S. Bartell, D. Beletsky, N. S. Bosch, S. B. Brandt, R. D. Briland, I. Daloğlu, J. V. DePinto, D. M. Dolan, M. A. Evans, T. M. Farmer,D. Goto, H. Han, T. O. Höök, R. Knight, S. A. Ludsin, D. Mason, A. M. Michalak, R. P. Richards, J. J. Roberts, D. K. Rucinski, E. Rutherford, D. J. Schwab, T. Sesterhenn, H. Zhang, Y. Zhou. 2014 Assessing and addressing the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: Central Basin Hypoxia. J. Great Lakes Res. 40: 226–246. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.02.004

Lemos, M.C., C. Kirchhoff, S. Kalafatis, D. Scavia and R. Rood 2014 Moving climate information off the shelf: Boundary Chains and the role of RISAs as an adaptive organization. Weather, Climate, and Society.

Rucinski, D., D. Scavia, J. DePinto, D. Beletsky 2014  Lake Erie’s hypoxia response to nutrient loads and meteorological variability. J. Great Lakes Res. 40 (Supplement 3): 151-161

Daloglu, I. J.I. Nassauer, R.L. Riolo, D. Scavia 2014 An Integrated Social and Ecological Modeling Framework – Impacts of Agricultural Conservation Practices on Water Quality. Ecology and Society

Zhou, Y., D. Scavia, A.M. Michalak 2014 Nutrient loading and meteorological conditions explain interannual variability of hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay.  Limnol. Oceanogr. 59:373-374

Scavia, D., M.A. Evans, D. Obenour 2013 A scenario and forecast model for Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area and volume.  Environ. Sci. Technol.http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es4025035

Obenour, D.; D. Scavia, N.R. Rabalais; E.R. Turner; A. Michalak 2013 A retrospective analysis of mid-summer hypoxic area and volume in the northern Gulf of Mexico, 1985-2011 Environ. Sci. Technol. Supporting Information

Bosch N.S., J.D. Allan, J.P. Selegean, D. Scavia 2013 Scenario-testing of agricultural best management practices in Lake Erie watersheds. J. Great Lakes. Res.  Supporting Information

Bidwell, D., T. Dietz, D. Scavia 2013  Fostering Knowledge Networks for Climate Adaptation.  Nature Climate Change.  3:1-2

Michalak, A.M., E. Anderson, D. Beletsky, S. Boland, N.S. Bosch, T.B. Bridgeman, J.D. Chaffin, K.H. Cho, R. Confesor, I. DaloÄŸlu, J. DePinto, M.A. Evans, G.L. Fahnenstiel, L. He, J.C. Ho, L. Jenkins, T. Johengen, K.C. Kuo, E. Laporte, X. Liu, M. McWilliams, M.R. Moore, D.J. Posselt, R.P. Richards, D. Scavia, A.L. Steiner, E. Verhamme8, D.M. Wright, M.A. Zagorski 2013 Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 110 (16) 6448-6452  Supporting Information

Shriberg, M., A. Horning, K. Lund, J. Callewaert, and D. Scavia 2013 Driving Transformative Change by Empowering Student Sustainability Leaders at the University of Michigan; In : Transforming Higher Education: Stories & Strategies for Sustainability, P.F. Barlett and G.W. Chase (Eds). MIT Press

Evans, M.A. and D. Scavia 2013 Exploring estuarine eutrophication sensitivity to nutrient loading. Limnol. Oceanogr.

Zhou, Y., D.R. Obenour, D. Scavia, T.H. Johengen, A.M. Michalak (2013) Spatial and Temporal Trends in Lake Erie Hypoxia, 1987-2007. Environ. Sci. Technol.47 (2), pp 899-905  Supporting Information; Correction

Richards, R. P., I. Alameddine, J.D. Allan , D.B. Baker, N. S. Bosch, R. Confesor, J.V. DePinto, D.M. Dolan, J.M. Reutter, D. Scavia 2012  Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models. J. Am. Water Res. Assoc.

Daloglu, I. K.H. Cho, D. Scavia 2012 Evaluating causes of trends in long-term dissolved reactive phosphorus loads to Lake Erie. Environ. Sci. Technol. 46:10660-10666

Obenour, D.R., A.M. Michalak,Y. Zhou, and D. Scavia. 2012. Quantifying the Impacts of Stratification and Nutrient Loading on Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Environ. Sci. Technol. dxdoi.org/10.102/es204481a

EPA Science Advisory Board. 2012. Review of Great Lakes Restoration Initiative Action Plan.  EPA, Washington, DC 50 pg.

Roberts, J.J., S. B. Brandt, D. Fanslow, S. A. Ludsin, S. Pothoven, D. Scavia, T. O. Hook. 2011.  Effects of hypoxia on consumption, growth, and RNA:DNA ratios of young yellow perch. Trans. Amer. Fisheries Soc. 140:6, 1574-1586

Lund, K., K. Dinse, J. Callewaert, D. Scavia. 2011 Benefits of using integrated assessment to address sustainability challenges. J. Environ. Stud. Sci, DOI 10.1007/s13412-011-0047-7

Mida, J.L. D. J. Jude, J.S. Schaeffer,  D.M. Warner, D. Scavia 2011 Response of Mysis diluviana lipids and fatty acids to changes in lower food webs in Lake Michigan and Huron, J. Great Lakes Res.

Liu, Y., G.B. Arhonditsis, C. Stow, D. Scavia. 2011 Comparing Chesapeake Bay Hypoxic-Volume and Dissolved-Oxygen Profile Predictions with A Bayesian Streeter-Phelps Model. J. America Water Res. Assoc.

Evans, M.A., G.A. Fahnenstiel, D. Scavia 2011 Incidental oligotrophication of North American Great Lakes. Environ. Sci. Technol.  (ES&T News Article)

Roberts, J.J., S. B. Brandt, D. Fanslow, S. A. Ludsin, S. Pothoven, D. Scavia, T. O. Hook. 2011. Growth and condition of yellow perch in response to hypoxia: Synthesis of lab and field results. Trans. Amer. Fisheries Soc.

Missouri River Planning: Recognizing and Incorporating Sediment Management. 2010 National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC. 135 pp.

Evans, M.A. and D. Scavia 2010. Forecasting hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico: Model accuracy, precision, and sensitivity to ecosystem change. Environ. Res. Letters.  doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/015001 Associated News Summary

Bell, A., M. Lemos, and D. Scavia. 2010 . Cattle, Clean Water, and Climate Change: Policy Choices for the Brazilian Agricultural Frontier. Environ. Sci. Technol. 44(22): 8377-8384

Arend, K.K, D. Beletsky, J.V. DePinto, S.A. Ludsin, J. J. Roberts, D. K. Rucinski, D. Scavia, D. J.Schwab, T. O. Hook(2010) Hypolimnetic hypoxia in the central basin of Lake Erie: understanding seasonal and interannual effects on habitat quality of important fish species. Freshwater Biology 56(1): 366-383

Rucinski, D.K., D. Beletsky, J. V. DePinto, D. J. Schwab, D. Scavia. 2010 A Simple 1-Dimensional Climate Based Dissolved Oxygen Model for Central Basin of Lake Erie.  J. Great Lakes Res. 36:465-476

Liu, Y, M.A. Evans, D. Scavia. 2010 Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia: Exploring Increasing Sensitivity to Nitrogen Loads. Environ. Sci. Technol.

Fahnenstiel G.A., T. Nalepa, S. Pothoven, H. Carrick, D. Scavia. 2010. Lake Michigan lower food web: Long-term observations and Dreissena impact.  J. Great Lakes Res. 36:1-4

Fahnenstiel, G.A., S. Pothoven, T. Nalepa, H. Vanderploeg, D. Klarer, D. Scavia. 2010 Recent changes in primary production and phytoplankton in the offshore region of southeastern Lake Michigan. J. Great Lakes Res. 36:20-29

Mida, J.A., D. Scavia, G. L. Fahnenstiel, S. A. Pothoven, H. A. Vanderploeg, D. M. Dolan. 2010 Long-term and recent changes in southern Lake Michigan water quality with implications for primary production. J. Great Lakes Res. 36: 42-49

Liu, Y. and D. Scavia.  2010. Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia Regime Shift: Insights from Two Simple Mechanistic Models. Estuaries and Coasts 33:629-639DOI 10.1007/s12237-009-9251-z

Fishman, D., S.A. Adlerstein,D. Scavia. 2010  Phytoplankton Community Composition of Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron, during the Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) Invasion: A Multivariate Analysis J. Great Lakes Res. 36:1-19

Fishman, D., D. Scavia, S.A. Adlerstein.2009. Causes of Phytoplankton Changes in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron during the Zebra Mussel Invasion. J. Great Lakes Res. 35: 482-495

Scavia, D. and Y. Liu. 2009. Exploring Estuarine Nutrient Susceptibility.  Environ. Sci. Technol. 43 :3474–3479. Supporting Information

Boesch, D., L.B. Crowder, R.J. Diaz, R.W. Howarth, L.E. Mee, S.W. Nixon, N.N. Rabalais, R. Rosenberg, J.G. Sanders, D. Scavia, R.E. Turner. 2009. Nutrient enrichment drives Gulf of Mexico hypoxia, Eos Trans. AGU. 99:117-128. Supporting information

Han. H., J. D. Allan, D. Scavia. 2009. Influence of Climate and Human Activities on the Relationship between Watershed Nitrogen Input and River Export. Environ. Sci. Technol. 43:1916-1922.  Supporting Information

Stow, C.A. and D. Scavia. 2009. Modeling Hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay: Ensemble Estimation Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. J. Marine Systems 76:244-250.

Daley, B.A. and D. Scavia. 2008. An Integrated Assessment of the Continued Spread and Potential Impacts of the Colonial Ascidian, Didemnum sp. A, in U.S. Waters. NOAA Technical Memorandum NOS NCCOS 78, 61 pp.

Scavia, D. and K.A. Donnelly. 2007. Reassesing Hypoxia Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico. Env. Sci. Technol. 41, 8111–8117.  Published Supporting Information

Justic, D., V.J. Bierman, Jr., D. Scavia. and R. Hetland. Forecasting Gulf’s Hypoxia: The Next 50 Years? 2007. Estuaries and Coasts, 30(5): 791-801.

Swaney, D.P., D. Scavia, R.W. Howarth, R.M. Marino. 2008 Estuarine Classification and Response to Nitrogen Loading: Insights from Simple Ecological Models. Estuarine and Continental Shelf Science Special Issue.

Nassauer, J.I., M.V. Santelmann, and D.Scavia (Eds). 2007 From the Corn Belt to the Gulf: Assessment of Alternative Agricultural Futures, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

Scavia, D. and J.I. Nassauer. 2007. Policy insights from alternative futures and integrated assessments. In: Nassauer, J.I., M.V. Santelmann, and D.Scavia (Eds). From the Corn Belt to the Gulf: Assessment of Alternative Agricultural Futures, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

Scavia, D., W.J. Mitsch, and O.C. Doering. 2007.  Improving Water Quality from the Corn Belt to the Gulf, In: Nassauer, J.I., M.V. Santelmann, and D.Scavia (Eds). From the Corn Belt to the Gulf: Assessment of Alternative Agricultural Futures, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

Turner, R.E., G. F. McIsaac, N. N. Rabalais, and D. Scavia. 2007. The Gulf of Mexico dead zone and ecological effects of agriculture in the Mississippi River Basin, In: Nassauer, J.I., M.V. Santelmann, and D.Scavia (Eds). From the Corn Belt to the Gulf: Assessment of Alternative Agricultural Futures, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

Doering, O.C., C.L. Kling, J.I. Nassauer, and D. Scavia  2007 Agricultural policy choices. In: Nassauer, J.I., M.V. Santelmann, and D.Scavia (Eds). From the Corn Belt to the Gulf: Assessment of Alternative Agricultural Futures, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

Donner, S.D and D. Scavia. 2007. How climate controls the flux of nitrogen by the Mississippi River and the development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Limnol. Oceanogr. 52(2): 856-861.

Bierman, V.J  Jr., S.C. Hinz; D. Justić, D.Scavia, J.A. Veil, K. Satterlee, M. Parker. 2007.  Predicted Impacts from Offshore Produced Water Discharges on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. SPE Facilities, Construction, and Operations.  Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Scavia, D., E.A. Kelly, and J. D. Hagy III. 2006. A simple model for forecasting the effects of nitrogen loads on Chesapeake Bay hypoxia. Estuaries and Coasts 29(4) 674-684.

Scavia, D. and S. Bricker.2006. Coastal Eutrophication Assessment in the United States. Biogeochemistry. 79: 18-208.

Martinelli, L.A., R.W. Howarth, E. Cuevas, S. Filoso, A.Austin, L. Donoso, V. Huzsar, D. Keeney, L. L Lara, C. Llerena, G. McIssac, E. Medina, J. Ortiz-Zayas, D. Scavia, D. W. Schindler, D. Soto, and A.Townsend. 2006. The origin and fate of reactive nitrogen in Latin America and the Caribbean .  Biogeochemistry 79: 3-24.

Scavia, D., D. Justic, and V.J. Bierman, Jr.  2004. Reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico: Advice from three models. Estuaries 27(3):419-425.

Scavia, D. L. Dantzler, M, McPhaden, P. Moersdorf, and M. Sissenwine.  2004. Ocean observing at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration. Oceanography 16(4): 61-67.

Scavia, D. N.N. Rabalais, R.E. Turner, D. Justic, and W. Wiseman Jr.  2003. Predicting the response of Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia to variations in Mississippi River Nitrogen Load. Limnol. Oceanogr. 48(3): 951-956.

Rabalais, N.N., R.E. Turner, and D. Scavia. 2002. Beyond Science into Policy: Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia and the Mississippi River. BioScience 52:129-142.

Scavia, D., J.C. Field, D.F. Boesch, R.W. Buddemeier, V. Burkett, D.R. Cayan, M. Fogarty, M.A. Harwell, R.W. Howarth, C. Mason, D.J. Reed, T.C. Royer, A.H. Sallenger, and J.G. Titus.  2002. Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems. Estuaries 25: 149-164.

Bierbaum, Huggett, Ruggiero, Scavia, Barnard, Bricker, Collins, Hicks, Huston, Janetos, Lillestolen, Murdoch, Robertson, Schaefer, Vickery, Weltz (1997) Integrating the Nation’s Environmental monitoring and research networks and programs: A proposed framework, Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, National Science and Technology Council, Washington, DC

Boyles, R., and D, Scavia. 1997.  Innovative Coastal Ocean Science at NOAA.  Sea Technology.

Scavia, D. 1997. Developing a comprehensive coastal research agenda. Oceanography. 10:11-13.

Scavia, D., M. Ruggiero, and E. Hawes. 1996. Building a scientific basis for ensuring the vitality and productivity of U.S. ecosystems. Bull. Ecological Society of America.  77:125-127.

Scavia, D., R.S. Winokur, and R.A. Schmitten. 1995.  NOAA’s Innovative Coastal Remote Sensing Program.  Sea Technology  36 (8): 27

Wenzel, L. and D. Scavia. 1993. NOAA’s Coastal Ocean Program.  Science for Solutions. Oceanus 36(1) Spring.

Conley, D.J. and D. Scavia. 1991. Size stucture of particulate biogenic silica in Lake Michigan. J. Great Lakes Res. 17: 18-24.

Hartig, J., J. F. Kitchell, D. Scavia and S.B. Brandt. 1991. Interaction of food-web and nutrient effects in Lake Michigan and Lake Ontario. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 8:1574-1580.

Laird, G. and D. Scavia. 1990. Distribution of labile dissolved organic carbon in Lake Michigan. Limnol. Oceanogr. 35:443-447.

Pernie, G.L., D. Scavia, M.L. Pace, and H.J. Carrick. 1990.  Micrograzer impact and substrate limitation of bacterioplankton in Lake Michigan. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 47:1836-1841.

Fahnenstiel, G.l., J.f. Chandler, H.j. Carrick, and D. Scavia. 1989. Photosynthetic characteristics of phytoplankton communities in Lakes Huron and Michigan: P-I parameters and end-products. J. Great Lakes Res. 15:394-407.

Scavia, D., G.A. Lang, and J.F. Kitchell. 1988. Dynamics of Lake Michigan plankton: A model evaluation of nutrient loading, competition, predation. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 45: 165 – 177

Fahnenstiel, G.L., D. Scavia, G.A. Lang, J. Saylor, G. Miller, and D.J. Schwab. 1988. Impact of internal waves on conventional primary production estimates. J. Plankton Res. 10: 77-87.

Kitchell, J.F, M.S. Evans, D. Scavia, and L.B. Crowder. 1988. Regulation of water quality in Lake Michigan: Report of the foodweb workshop. J. Great Lakes Res. 14: 109-114.

Laird, G.A., D. Scavia, G.L. Fahnenstiel, L.A. Strong, and G.A. Lang. 1988.  Dynamics of Lake Michigan phytoplankton: Relationship to nitrogen and silica fluxes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 45: 1459-1466.

Scavia, D. 1988. The role of bacteria in secondary production. Limnol. Oceanogr.  33:1220-1224.

Fahnenstiel, G.L. and D. Scavia. 1987. Dynamics of Lake Michigan’s phytoplankton: changes in surface and deep populations. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 44: 509-514.

Fahnenstiel, G.L. and D. Scavia. 1987. Dynamics of Lake Michigan’s phytoplankton: Primary production and growth. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 44: 499-508.

Scavia, D. and G.L. Fahnenstiel. 1987. Dynamics of Lake Michigan’s phytoplankton: Mechanisms controlling epilimnetic communities. J. Great Lakes Res. 13: 103-120.

Fahnenstiel, G.L. and D. Scavia. 1987. Dynamics of Lake Michigan’s phytoplankton: The deep chlorophyll layer. J. Great Lakes Res.13: 285-295.

Scavia, D. and G.A. Laird. 1987. Bacterioplankton in Lake Michigan: Dynamics, controls, and significance to carbon flux. Limnol. Oceanogr. 32: 1019-1035.

Sonzogni, W.C., R.P. Canale, D.C.L. Lam, W. Lick, D. Mackay, C.K. Minns, W.L. Richardson, D. Scavia, V. Smith, and W.M.J. Strachan. 1987. Large lake models – uses, abuses, and future. J. Great Lakes Res. 13: 384-396.

Fahnenstiel, G. L., L. Sicko-Goad, D. Scavia, and E.F. Stoermer. 1986. Importance of picoplankton in Lake Superior. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 43: 235-240.

Scavia, D., G.L. Fahnenstiel, M.S. Evans, J.T. Jude and J.T. Lehman. 1986. Influence of salmonid predation and weather on long-term Water Quality trends in Lake Michigan. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 43: 435-443.

Laird, G.A., D. Scavia, and G.L. Fahnenstiel. 1986. Algal organic carbon excretion in Lake Michigan. J. Great Lakes Res. 12: 136-141.

Scavia, D., G. A. Laird, G.L. Fahnenstiel. 1986. Production of planktonic bacteria in Lake Michigan. Limnol. Oceanogr. 31:612-626.

Gardner, W.S., J.F. Chandler, G.A. Laird, and D. Scavia. 1986. Microbial response to amino acid additions in Lake Michigan: Grazer control and substrate limitation of bacterial populations. J. Great Lakes Res. 12: 161-174.

Fahnenstiel, G. L. D. Scavia, and C.L. Schelske.  1984. Nutrient-light interactions in the Lake Michigan subsurface chlorophyll layer. Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol.  22:440-444.

Lehman, J. T. and D. Scavia.  l984. Measuring the ecological significance of microscale nutrient patches. Limnol. Oceanogr. 29:214-2l6.

Scavia, D., G.L. Fahnenstiel, J.A. Davis, and R.G. Kreis, Jr.  1984.  Small-scale nutrient patchiness.  Some consequences and a new encounter mechanism. Limnol. Oceanogr.  29:785-793.

Vanderploeg, H.A., D. Scavia, and J.R. Liebig.  1984.  Feeding rate of Diaptomus sicilis and its relation to selectivity and effective food concentration in algal mixtures and in Lake Michigan.  J. Plankton Research  6:919-941.

Vanderploeg, H.A. and D. Scavia.  1983.  Misconceptions about Estimating Prey Preference. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci.  40:148-150.

Landrum, P.F. and D. Scavia.  1983.  Influence of Sediment on Uptake, Depuration, and Biotransformation by the Amphipod Hyalella azteca. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 40: 298-305.

Henderson-Sellers, B., M.J. McCormick, and D. Scavia.  1983. A Comparison of the Formulation for Eddy Diffusion in two One-dimensional Stratification Models. Appl. Math. Modeling 7:212-215.

Lehman, J. T. and D. Scavia.  1982.  Microscale Patchiness of Nutrients in Plankton Communities. Science  216:729-730.

Scavia, D. and M.J. McFarland.  1982.  Phosphorus Release Patterns and the Effects of Reproductive Stage and Ecdysis in Daphnia magna. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci.  39:1310-1314.

Lehman, J. T. and D. Scavia.  1982.  Microscale Nutrient Patches Produced by Zooplankton. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.  79:5001-5005.

Scavia, D. and W.S. Gardner.  1982. Kinetics of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Release By Daphnia magna.  Hydrobiologia  96:105-111.

Gardner, W.S. and D. Scavia.  1981.  Kinetic Approach to Examine Nitrogen Release by Individual Zooplankters. Limnol. Oceanogr.26:801-810.

McCormick, M.J. and D. Scavia.  1981.  Calculation of Vertical Profiles of Lake Averaged Temperature and Diffusivity in Lakes Ontario and Washington. Water Resources Research 17:305-310.

Scavia, D., W. F. Powers, R. P. Canale, and J. L. Moody. 1981. Comparisons of First-Order Error Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation in Time-dependent Lake Eutrophication Models. Water Resources Research 17:1051-1059.

Scavia, D., R.P. Canale, W. F. Powers, and J. L. Moody 1981. Variance Estimates for a Dynamic Eutrophication Model of Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. Water Resources Research  17:1115-1124.

Scavia, D.  1980. An Ecological Model of Lake Ontario. Ecological Modelling 8:49-78.

Scavia, D. and J. R. Bennett.  1980. The Spring Transition Period of Lake Ontario – A Numerical Study of the Causes of the Large Biological and Chemical Gradients. Can. J. Fish. Aquat.Sci. 37:823-833.

Scavia, D. and A. Robertson.  (Eds.)  1979.  Perspectives on Lake Ecosystem Modeling.  Ann Arbor Science Publ., Ann Arbor, 330p.

Vanderploeg, H.A. and D. Scavia.  1979.  Calculation and Use of Selective Feeding Coefficients:  Zooplankton Grazing. Ecological Modelling 7:135-150.

Vanderploeg, H.A. and D. Scavia.  1979.  Two Electivity  Indecies for Feeding With Special Reference To Zooplankton Grazing. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Canada  36:362-365.

Scavia, D.  1979.  Examination of Phosphorus Cycling and Control of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Lake Ontario With An Ecological Model. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Canada  36:1336-1346.

Robertson, A. and D. Scavia 1978.  Ecosystem and Water Quality Modeling During IFYGL. Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol 20:311-316.

Scavia, D. and S. C. Chapra. 1977.  Comparison of An Ecological Model of Lake Ontario and Phosphorus Loading Models. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Canada 34:286-290.

Scavia, D. and R. V. Thomann.  1977.  Some Comments on a Water Quality Model for Deep Reservoirs. J. Water Pollution Control Federation 49:507.

Kohberger, R.C., D. Scavia, and J. W. Wilkinson.  1978.  A Method for Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Differential Equation Models. Water Resources Research 14:25-29.

Scavia, D. and R.A. Park.  1976.  Documentation of Selected Constructs and Parameter Values in the Aquatic Model CLEANER. Ecological Modelling 2:33-58.

Scavia, D. and B. J. Eadie. 1976.  Use of Measurable Coefficients in process Formulations-Zooplankton Grazing.  Ecological Modeling 2:315-319.

Scavia, D., JA Bloomfield, JS Fisher, J Nagy, RA Park 1974 Documentation of CLEANX: a generalized model for simulating the open-water ecosystems of lakes, Simulation, 23 (2), 51-56

Park, R.A., R.V. O’Neill, J.A. Bloomfield, H.H. Shugart, R.S. Booth, R.A. Goldstine, J.B. Mankin, J.F. Koonce, D. Scavia, M.S.Adams, L.S. Cleseri, E.M. Colon, E.H. Dettmann, J. Hoopes, D.D. Huff, S. Katz, J.F. Kitchell, R.C. Kohberger, E.J. Larow, D.C. McNaught, J. Petersen, J. Titus, P.R. Weiler, J.W. Wilkinson, C.S. Zahorcak. 1974.  A Generalized Model for Simulating Lake Ecosystems. Simulation 23:33-50.